I am constantly asked by telecom professionals “John, the telecom landscape is really changing but, where is it headed”? So, I thought I would share of few of my view points here:
While not a new concept but one that is finally ready for primetime… As Apple demonstrated with their FaceTime app on the IOS 4 with AT&T, they slipped a communication app that uses the data network right under AT&T’s nose so to say.
Skype and many others have used SIP and other protocols to complete voice sessions between endpoint devices. The only real reason anyone uses a carrier for phone calls is for the use of a 10-digit (US) number to terminate calls to. Frankly, most of us can’t remember our family members numbers anymore… Just click on their contact and the call goes through.
So, does it matter that the call originated on a CDMA or 3-4-G network or is it more important that the call “just works”? So, from a trending standpoint, I believe that within the next couple of years, consumers will just use their data plan to make calls (all in the background of course).
Once that happens, we will see true convergence with content, regardless of the transport protocol.
And consider these points:
1- Apples iPhone business alone is 2X larger than Googles worldwide revenues annually.
2- Apple is sitting on almost $80-Billion in cash and they already slipped voice and video into their IOS including messaging. Is there an AppleNet in the making here?
3- Microsoft now owns Skype.
4- Google has a voice platform tightly integrated with all of their apps (Android as well).
5- The giant web properties are bidding for all of Nortel’s patents to enable them to compete without intellectual property obstacles.
6- Comcast, AT&T and others are piping multimedia solutions into homes and businesses as fast as they can.
That’s a pretty strong trend IMHO.
Look forward to comments!
–JW
You comments are so much on target. These are true happenings and are causing the ultimate total climate change within the ecosystem that exists today. The issue is that I know personally, the operators in my area of the world (SAMENA) are in most cases, very cognizant of these changes and are addressing them as quickly as possible. We all have so much further to go and everyone knows this.
Apple used ATT and ATT used Apple and the networks still must be built to allow all of these interesting handset activities to prevail. Its how the networks are leveraged, where the questions lie. Those who sell others short based on old legacy occurrences perhaps should not lay down their bets yet. It remains interesting as to how the future will lay things out but as stated in earlier posts, the strength lies in the stakeholders working together and that good management is hired that can be aggressive and not hit the panic button too early in on the process.
The networks have costs that run into the billions to build and upgrade and the demand on speed and bandwidth still have not abated. The customer carrier relationship is one of value and one that must be leveraged quickly but smartly. These are very interesting times indeed. How the operators react (most are trying to be proactive now by the way), how the OTTPs develop going forward, how the regulators regulate all are parts of the equation and much more. Verizon’s decision to measure is huge, given that they are passing costs onto the consumer of how the OTTPs operate their business models.
The network is still central to all of this. Very much so.